How to manage money in the new year? Please keep this 2020 financial strategy!

Looking back on the past 2019, compared with the 5% and 6% yields of wealth management products in the past few years, everyone is inevitably disappointed. In the past year, after experiencing the decline in the yields of various "baby" money funds and the continued decline in the yields of bank wealth management products, it seems that the interest rates of various low-risk wealth management products are falling, which also makes us more confused — — In 2020, how should we manage our finances?
See the global economic trend clearly
With the global economy in a state of fatigue, the era of negative interest rates has arrived.
Negative interest rate means that the bank lends money to the lender, and the lender pays back less than the borrowed money, and the deposit interest rate may also be negative. The money in the bank not only has no interest, but may even shrink gradually.
As of 2019, many countries around the world have implemented or are implementing zero interest rates or negative interest rates. For example, the economies that have implemented and still maintain negative interest rates include Japan, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, etc., and the low interest rate economies that have briefly implemented near "zero" include the United States and the United Kingdom.
In August 2019, Denmark’s third largest bank — — Jutland Bank launched the world’s first mortgage loan with negative interest rate, with a mortgage interest rate of negative 0.5%. Germany even successfully sold the national debt with a scale of 824 million euros and a maturity of up to 30 years at a negative yield.
Some people may say, what does negative interest rate have to do with our financial management?
Investment and financial management must first see the general trend clearly. If the global economy is further plunged into negative interest rates and low interest rates, then financial management also needs to be "long-term", and it needs to take five or even ten years as a cycle to consider what to invest and how to invest. After all, in the context of the global economic downturn and falling interest rates, it means that the products worth investing are decreasing, and the rate of return on investment is also declining, which is closely related to our "money bag".
From a global perspective, the decline in interest rates is still the general trend. Since 2019, more than 30 central banks around the world have announced interest rate cuts, not only in developed economies, but also in emerging economies such as Russia, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil. In August 2019, the Swiss bank announced that it would levy an annual fee on deposits of more than 500,000 euros, which is regarded as a negative interest rate in disguise. Large amounts of funds deposited in banks not only have no interest, but may gradually shrink.
Looking forward to 2020, the situation is still not optimistic. According to the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economic growth rate dropped from 3.6% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2019, setting the lowest level of global economic growth in 10 years. The IMF predicts that by 2020, global economic growth will improve slightly, with a growth rate of 3.4%, which has been lowered by 0.2 percentage points compared with April 2019.
Compared with the major economies in the world, China’s current interest rate level is still high. Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the central bank, recently said at the "Innovation Economic Forum" that there were two lessons from the international financial crisis in 2008, one was a bubble, and the other was a low interest rate in a low inflation environment. "Our interest rate is not as low as that of western countries, and there is still room to deal with economic problems, so we should try our best to avoid entering the era of negative interest rates quickly."
Pay more attention to "hard core" assets
In 2019, although our wealth management income is declining, from a global perspective, the return on RMB assets is already "outstanding" in low-risk investment varieties. Financial management also needs to adjust the mentality and be steady.
Since 2019, the chill of bank wealth management products has gradually emerged, and the yield has continued to fall. Relevant statistics show that from January to November 2019, the average expected rate of return on bank wealth management products fell from 4.31% to 3.98%.
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, although the income of "baby" money funds has increased, most of them still stay in the "2" era. As of December 30, 2019, the average 7-day annualized rate of return of all-market money funds rose above 2.5%. Among the 629 monetary funds that can be counted, 136 monetary funds have an annualized rate of return of more than 3% on the 7 th, and 479 monetary funds have a rate of return of around 2.5%.
Even if the rate of return on financial management is lower, from a global perspective, RMB assets are the "fragrant buns" of the world. With the interest rate cuts of major economies in the world, the spread between China and foreign countries has expanded to a historical high level, which has greatly increased the attractiveness of RMB assets, such as RMB bonds, to overseas institutional investors. At present, the interest rates of 10-year and 30-year sovereign bonds in Germany have been negative. In contrast, the interest rate of RMB bonds for 10 years is around 3.2%, while that of US dollar bonds is less than 2%.
Therefore, although it is not comparable to the rate of return in the past few years, horizontally, China’s wealth management products are still very attractive. Moreover, in the current global economic downturn and increasing uncertainty, the primary goal of investment and financial management should be to ensure the safety of principal.
"For investors, making quick money is no longer so easy, the risks are getting bigger and bigger, and there are more and more pits." For example, Guan Qingyou, president of the Financial Research Institute, believes that in this context, we still need to pay more attention to "hard core" assets. "Hard-core" assets have four obvious characteristics, such as real value, relative scarcity, relative safety and better liquidity.
Guan Qingyou said that the first one is value. Simply put, it is "useful" to people. A hard-core company must be able to create profits and have a high return on equity. For example, a "hard core" house must have the value of living and living; The second characteristic is scarcity. Things are rare, the scarcer they are, the harder it is to be copied, and the more valuable it is; The third is security. High yield means high risk. Don’t touch the "rose with thorns". Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, once said, "If the yield exceeds 6%, it will be in doubt; if it exceeds 8%, it will be dangerous; if it exceeds 10%, it will be prepared to lose all the principal". Be wary of high-yield wealth management products.
The last one is liquidity. Guan Qingyou believes that such assets should not be too small, and it is best to be needed and recognized by most people. In the financial downturn, the worse the liquidity of assets with too little demand, the more difficult it is to reflect their value.
Turn to long-term investment
What you didn’t like in the past may be the best financial choice now.
Assets with relatively high returns and sustainable investment are the best choice for ordinary individual investors. For risk-averse investors, it is a good choice to buy government bonds or simply deposit them in the bank for a fixed period.
At present, the annual interest rate of 3-year treasury bonds is around 4%, and the 5-year interest rate is around 4.27%. The interest rate of 3-year fixed deposits is also above 4%, and that of 5-year fixed deposits, especially small banks, can reach above 4.8%. In the period when interest rates are expected to rise, buying longer-term treasury bonds or fixed deposits may be a choice with higher returns and lower risks. If you think that these two kinds of liquidity are not good and you can’t take them at any time, then you can also consider products such as transferable certificates of deposit introduced by banks, but they have a certain threshold, generally starting from 200,000 yuan. If you need money before it expires, you can transfer it through the bank’s platform, which is relatively more liquid.
4% interest rate is not high compared with the past, but we must know that in those economies that have fallen into negative interest rates, it is very difficult to find investment products with a yield of more than 2% and stable income. If you can maintain a steady income, even if you buy a "basic" deposit product and reinvest the interest earned, the long-term return brought by "rolling interest" is very considerable.
Another popular product in 2019 is gold. Gold is considered as a safe-haven asset, so when the economy goes down, increasing gold holdings is the first choice.
At the end of 2019, the "spring" of the stock market appeared, and the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3,000 points. At present, the expectations of all parties for the stock market in spring are rising. In this context, for individual investors who don’t care about bank wealth management and time deposit returns, if they want to invest in the stock market, they will not choose individual stocks, then in 2020, investing in index funds is also worth trying.
In 2020, investment still needs to be stable.
